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Lean Hogs Technicals // December Lean Hogs: Fresh Lows as the Decline Breaks Below the Channel

14 octobre 2026, RJO'Brien

December Lean Hogs: Fresh Lows as the Decline Breaks Below the Channel
 
December lean hogs have fallen to 66$, down almost 3% today alone, breaking below the lower boundary of the descending channel. The latest recovery failed near 71, adding another lower high to an already persistent bearish trend. Prices remain below the five-day average at 67.78 and the 20-day average at 69.18. The MACD has turned lower again below its signal line, suggesting renewed selling pressure. A rebound becomes increasingly plausible after such an extended decline, but the chart still offers little evidence that a lasting floor is forming.
  • 4 weeks:Bearish, with downside pressure accelerating. 66 is the immediate reference, followed by the round-number areas at 65 and 64, since the chart shows no earlier support at these prices. Recovering 67–68 would be the first sign that the channel break is failing.
  • 12 weeks:Repeated recovery failures keep sellers in control. 69–71 is the first meaningful resistance zone. Until prices reclaim it, rebounds remain vulnerable to becoming another lower high.
  • 26 weeks:The descending channel continues to define the broader trend, although prices are now slipping beneath it. A sustained return inside the channel would ease the immediate pressure; overcoming its upper boundary, currently around 74–75, would provide stronger evidence of a trend change.
  • 52 weeks:The advance toward 85 has been fully reversed, with the contract now making fresh lows across the displayed period. Building a durable recovery will require a base, a higher low and a break above a previous recovery high.
Bottom line: This market can bounce sharply, but timing remains the problem. The break below the channel adds urgency to the decline. Reclaiming 67–68 would offer initial relief; moving above 71 would make a bottom more credible.

Cheers, SB/

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